Evans Data and most articles emphasize a move to "scripting" languages rather than compiled languages as a key part of the findings. This is the only conclusion that I completely reject. Comparing scripting languages and compiled languages is like a head-to-head contest between 18 wheeler trucks and Formula 1 race cars. The bottom line is that these languages fill entirely different needs in the development world. It makes me wonder about the methodological integrity of the whole study when I read this kind of statement.
There is some slight competition with, for example, compiled Visual Basic ASP.NET server programs and scripted server programs that might occasionally go head-to-head. Compiled systems will beat the socks off scripted solutions every time in function, security, and speed. I have no concerns about the future there.
One result that supports my own feeling about it is that Microsoft well and truely shot themselves in the foot when they summarily abandoned VB 6. The Evans data supports the conclusion that VB 6 is being dropped like a hot rock more clearly than any other result. And it didn't have to be this way. What would it have cost Microsoft to, for instance, just keep selling VB 6 to people who wanted to buy it?
The attitude that you can create the future by giving people no choice is called "hubris". If you look up the word at Dictionary.com, you find this example:
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During his long tenure in the financial world, Friedman has watched dozens of his competitors' businesses killed by hubris born of success rather than by unsound business decisions or adverse market conditions.
-- Lisa Endlich, Goldman Sachs: The Culture of Success
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Don't get me wrong. I like .NET and VB.NET in particular. I think they represent a huge advance in technology and they're the best development environment available today. Visual Basic really did, desperately, need this "break with the past" move to what I think is the most advanced development architecture you can get.
But even though I moved from VB 6 to VB.NET with gratitude and eager anticipation personally, I can still feel the betrayal and rejection that Microsoft's new "market oriented" managers created by slamming the door on VB 6 developers. VB 6, outdated as it is, still represented the accumulated investment of almost two decades for some programmers. But with a stroke of a pen, Microsoft management clearly said to them, "We don't care about your problems. We need to get this new product launched with the biggest numbers possible." It seems to me that a lot of those programmers are now replying back to Microsoft, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
The other conclusion that rings most clearly from the survey is the rise of Java. So what can we conclude from that?
Well, one thing we might conclude is that Java has finally emerged as a genuine open source language and the first choice of the Apache - Linux - MySQL community.
While Java has always featured free and downloadable software, last month Sun finally announced that they would release the source for their popular ME and SE editions and their server-side Java under the same open license that controls Linux. Their former license, called the Community Development and Distribution License, was one that the Sun lawyers and marketing people invented. The "big deal" here is that this will make it possible to bundle Java and Linux without license complications. It took years, a dizzying dive in the stock price (from over $60 in 2000 to slightly more than $5 today), and the resignation of a headstrong CEO, but it seems Sun now has a little less "hubris" than they used to have.
Microsoft, on the other hand, pretty much spoon feeds developers what they want them to know. And they charge a pretty penny for it, too. The list price of the "top" version of Visual Studio, 2005 Team Suite, is over $10,000 - each! Ee-Jaaa!! Of course, a business can get it much cheaper by purchasing a volume subscription deal. Try on these velvet handcuffs! Now don't they feel nice and comfortable?
I lived through it when Microsoft sliced and diced IBM. It was gut-wrenching. Steve Ballmer, meet John Akers.
But I hate to conclude all this on a sour note. There are some positives.
First - Microsoft is making their latest and best technology available absolutely free in the form of the "Express" versions. You can get everything you need for standalone systems or web sites for the price of a download - database included! And it's good stuff! It uses the same technology core that the top-of-the-line products use.
Right up to the end, IBM behaved as though Fortune 500 executives were their only customers. So this gives us some hope for the future.
Second - and I can't emphasize this enough - Microsoft has not lost their technical excellence! As I try out some of their latest XAML, Windows Workflow Foundation, and Expression Web Designer products, I am blown away! Yes, indeed. Those velvet handcuffs really are comfy!
But then, IBM was always technically better than Microsoft. On technical grounds alone, OS/2 (Does anybody even remember OS/2?) was head and shoulders above Windows. It didn't help enough.
